Explaining Local Electoral Turn-Out in Macedonia. Does Ethnicity Matter?

Macedonia is a country in which the variation in local electoral participation belongs to the highest in Europe (coefficient of variance 0,148 in 2013 and 0,200 in 2017). The paper tries to explain this variation through regression model including several independent variables. In additional to typical factors taken into account in such analysis in earlier studies (population size of local community, competitiveness of elections, social status of residents, urban/rural character, peripherality of location) the country specific variable - ethnic composition of population in individual municipalities is taken into account. In most of Macedonian municipalities there is a clear domination of one ethnic group (usually either Macedonian or Albanian), but there are also communities in which there is an almost equilibrium with two groups of comparable size. The paper investigates how ethnic composition modifies the model based on “conventional” explanatory variables. The ethnically balanced situation may influence electoral turn-out in two opposite directions: it may increase electoral competition (especially for the post of executive mayor) and contribute to higher turn-out or it may disturb development of harmonious local civic society and decrease citizens’ interest in participation in official forms of local politics. Empirically, the tested models are based on 2013 and 2017 electoral data.