Expecting the Unexpected? The Formation of Coalition Expectations in an Uncertain Environment

It has been demonstrated that vote decisions are influenced by expectations about the election outcome and the subsequent government formation. However, how voters anticipate the government formation process has received little attention. This study aims to improve the understanding of how voters form expectations about the coalition formation when the pre-election identifiability of the future government is low. Coalition expectations of Dutch voters from the 2002, 2006, and 2010 elections were used in combination with a manual content analysis of the news media to study how voters form expectations. The results of cross-classified multilevel regressions suggest that, even in an uncertain environment, voters’ coalition expectations are substantively meaningful. These expectations are mainly based on rational considerations. Voters are more likely to expect that a coalition will be formed, if they perceive a potential coalition as a viable and credible option. Furthermore, how potential coalitions are mentioned in the media has a huge effect on expectations: if a coalition is mentioned relatively often by the media and this coverage is positive, voters are more likely to expect that this coalition will be formed. Negative media attention has the opposite effect. However, expectations are biased since voters are more likely to expect that a coalition will be formed, if they prefer this coalition.