A Lack of Local Loyalty Understanding Vote Switch Parties Between National and Municipal Elections in the Netherlands

When comparing the 2017 Dutch national and 2018 municipal elections 71% of the voters did not vote for the same parties. This was not the first time that there were two relatively close elections in the Netherlands where voters cast their balance in very different ways. Even in 1986 one out of three voters voted for the different parties. The lack of loyalty to parties that citizens show, is striking. For as far as there is research about whether voters vote differently in subnational compared to national elections the percentages are lower and they are often just a minority of voters: from 37% in Denmark, via 28% in Belgium to 5% in Spain (Eklit & Kjær 2005; Sanz 2008; Marien et al. 2015). The decline in voter loyalty between elections has also been steep. The question is under what circumstances do voters switch their vote preference between national and municipal elections? We built on earlier studies of split-ticket voting in local and national elections (Railings & Thrasher 1998, 2001, 2003; Marien et al. 2015; Eklit & Kjær 2005, 2009; Linz 2008). These studies emphasize the importance of partisanship, political sophistication, ideological distance and dissatisfaction with government about different political actors. At the same time, the studies built on studies of voting for independent local parties that emphasizes the importance of the supply of national parties in different municipalities (Otjes 2018, 2019). This study looks at three sources of data to analyse patterns in preference switching between national and local elections: first, the five Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies between 1986 and 2010 that include questions about national and local elections. These allow us to trace switching between national and local election for a long period. Second, studies specifically oriented at local elections, which we are available for 2014 and 2018, these allow us to test more specific expectations. Third, we study difference in local and national election results at the municipal level to see how difference in the supply of national parties shape election results.