Comparing How Causal Mechanisms Link Social Movement Campaigns and Subnational Authoritarian Enclave Democratization in Isabela, the Philippines and Oaxaca, Mexico.

Democracy is often measured on the national level. This conceals variations in quality of democracy within the territory of a nation. Scholars thus focus on democracy on the subnational level, by exploring the spread and degree of democracy within the nation and by questioning how authoritarian enclaves survive and democratize. They found two pathways for subnational authoritarianisms to democratize, through intervention by the central state or by opposition parties. I argue that this is top-down in nature and does not consider if sub-state mobilization of civil society can initiate change. I therefore question if and how social movement campaigns can facilitate subnational democratization processes. In this study, I compare two cases wherein a social movement campaign mobilizes and makes direct claims against the subnational authoritarian governor, and wherein a subnational democratization process has taken place. The cases are located in the province of Isabela, the Philippines and the state of Oaxaca, in Mexico. In Isabela, a social movement campaign made direct claims against the authoritarian governor and his political dynasty in 2004. They simultaneously campaigned for the non-dynastic former radio broadcaster Grace Padaca, who subsequently won the 2004 and 2007 gubernatorial elections. Oaxaca was a subnational authoritarian enclave which the PRI-party ruled for 70 years. Local social movements organized large-scale demonstrations for six months in 2006, whereby they took over control of the state capital. They demanded the resignation of their authoritarian governor. Although federal police crushed this uprising, the gubernatorial seat fell in opposition’s hands in 2010. For both cases, I generated and gathered data in the field by doing in-depth interviews, archival work and by generating film material. In each case, I apply theory-building Causal Process Tracing to trace a causal mechanism between social movement campaigns and subnational democratization. Then, I compare the mechanisms. Preliminary results indicate that in both cases, the social movement campaign directly impacted the subnational democratization event, but that a subsequent democratic consolidation or deepening remains absent.