Inequality in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion

A growing body of literature shows that the preferences of certain groups in society—in particular of poorer, lower-educated and female citizens—are less well represented than the preferences of the rich, the higher-educated, and men (see e.g. Peters & Ensink, 2015; Hakhverdian, 2015; Reher, 2018). Scholars now wonder about the mechanisms behind these findings: how does representational inequality come about? This paper explores one possible explanation: that politicians have biased perceptions of what the public wants. Most politicians belong to advantaged groups in society (being relatively rich, higher-educated and male). Moreover, advantaged groups participate more in politics and they more actively voice their preferences. This might cause politicians’ perceptions of public opinion—and, as a consequence, their policy-making decisions—to be skewed towards the preferences of advantaged groups. To test this assumption, the paper uses data from surveys with politicians and citizens in five countries (Belgium, Switzerland, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands). Specifically, citizens were asked about their preferences with regard to eight concrete policy proposals, and politicians were asked to estimate the public’s preferences regarding these same eight proposals. Comparing politicians’ estimations with the actual preferences of different societal groups, the paper shows to what extent unequal representation is driven by biases in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion. (We believe this paper would fit well in the panel about 'Determinants of Representatives’ Perceptions of Public Opinion', or in the panel about ‘The Politics of Unequal Group Representation’.)