Green and Young? Voting in the 2019 European Elections

Discussions of electoral turnouts over the last few years have often focused on the low rates of participation among young voters. The 18 to 24 age group has generally voted less than older age groups across many democracies. In preparation for the 2019 European elections, the European Parliament has engaged in campaigns to convince young voters of the need to participate in European democracy. Self-reported turnouts demonstrate that the official engagement to get younger Europeans to vote in May 2019 has delivered promising results. The age group 18-24 has seen an increased voting turnout at the European elections, reaching 42% of its group. Although this turnout remains the lowest among all voting age groups for the European Parliament, young voters between the ages of 18 and 24 have increased their electoral participation by 14% in comparison to the 2014 electoral cycle. This is the largest increase in voting turnout among all age groups in Europe. As Europe seems to show a turnaround in voting turnouts among the youth, it remains critical to understand what really motivated so many more young citizens to go to the polls in the recent European elections. This paper investigates the factors that supported an increase in voting participation among young individuals. In particular, the research focuses on the role of ideology as a primary predictor of the decision to vote in Europe. Initial reports have claimed that progressive ideas and environmentally oriented political programs have managed to attract a large number of younger participants because of their connection to the primary policy interests of young citizens. This paper tests the hypothesis that ideology is the most important factor to convince young individuals to go to the polls. Personal motivations linked to specific issues can be the strongest predictors of political behavior, and in the case of young Europeans, finding these strong sources of engagement can make a significant difference in their level of commitment to electoral participation. Do ideological positions on the ballot matter more for younger voters? Do progressive programs attract more young citizens than conservative manifestos in Europe? This project will use data from the Eurobarometer 91.5 to test the relevance of ideology in the calculation of voting probabilities of younger Europeans, in particular in comparison to other typical voting predictors (socio-economic status, religion, education, unemployment, EU positioning, etc…). The findings from such type of research have important consequences on the future of EU governance. If indeed ideology is a strong predictor of young voters participating in elections, then some ideological positions may be more crucial than others in convincing young citizens to vote. Parties on the left or the right may enjoy a particular advantage in convincing young voters to participate in the democratic process. Ultimately, an increase in youth voting may help one side of the ideological spectrum of political parties in Europe more than the other, with direct consequences for future EU policy priorities. I am available to serve as a panel chair and/or discussant.