EU Democracy Promotion and the Challenge of Authoritarian Diffusion

The global rise of democratic backsliding and the spread of seemingly successful authoritarian states has inaugurated a shift in the international context of democracy promotion. This article tackles the growing importance of authoritarian diffusion as a countervailing force for international democracy promotion efforts, with the presence of multiple poles of external influence increasing opportunities for domestic elites to ‘pick and choose.’ It proposes a framework for analysis that spells out different channels of competing democratic and authoritarian diffusion forces and domestic elites’ responses to simultaneous exposure to both types of influence. We suggest that elites in hybrid regimes are receptive to both authoritarian and democratic models from abroad, leading to mixed outcomes and a perpetuation of hybridity. We illustrate our argument with examples drawn from the Western Balkans and recent backsliding episodes in Serbia and North Macedonia in particular. This discussion feeds into debates about diffusion and (de-)democratisation and suggests the need to incorporate broader international and transnational dynamics into analyses of the effectiveness of external democracy promotion.