Elitist Policy-Making in Disguise? Initiators of Bottom-Up Referenda in European Democracies

Direct democratic instruments are discussed by politicians and academia likewise as a means to bring citizens “back in” and thereby increase support for democracy. Bottom-up referenda in particular seem to offer minorities and other marginalized groups an opportunity to get their issues on the agenda. But the question remains open if they are really successful in this regard. Are they able to pursue their interests against other, more powerful actors, via direct democratic instruments? Or are (successful) bottom-up referenda mostly initiated by groups that are already influential to further improve their status? Empirical work on this topic up to now suggests the second, but encompassing, comparative research is missing. Therefore, this paper investigates the following questions: 1) Which groups initiate bottom-up votes? 2) Do the bottom-up bill proposals aim at increasing equality or improving the positions of those who are already rich and powerful? And finally, 3) which bills are succeeding at the ballot? To answer these questions, we draw on a comprehensive dataset collected in our DFG (German Research Foundation)-funded project “Inequality and Direct Democracy in Europe”, containing all national direct democratic votes in European democracies between 1990 and 2015. We answer our research questions by employing a statistical analysis, using large numbers of variables in different regression models. Our findings are crucial for assessing the potential of direct democratic instruments to give voice to marginalized groups via bottom-up referenda.