How to Win a Constituency – Do Local Campaigns Matter? Electoral Consequences of Constituency Campaign Strategies in German Federal Elections, 2009ꟷ2017

In Germany, half of federal MPs are elected in single-member constituencies. In times of increasing volatility, dealignment, new populism and the decline of catch-all-parties, the traditional dominance of CDU/CSU and SPD shrinks in these single-member constituencies. Winning a constituency is more and more a competitive affair. Consequently, election campaigns at constituency level gain importance. Related to this new importance, these local campaigns are addressed by scholars recently. A change of campaign patterns is discussed (e.g. Bukow/Angenendt 2019; Zittel 2015; De Winter/Baudewyns 2015; Pattie/Johnston 2009; Zittel/Gschwend 2008). It is asked to which extent personalization and/or localization of constituency campaigns takes places. Furthermore, it is questioned to which extent campaign patterns make a difference for electoral success, in other words: Do constituency campaigns and their different types matter electorally? We contribute to this strand of research by analysing constituency campaigns in German federal elections. Our paper and conference presentation addresses two main aspects: (1.) The variance of constituency campaign types in Germany in recent federal elections and its change over time (i.e. localized/personalized vs. party centred constituency campaigns). This provides an empirical in-sight in Ger-man federal election campaigns since 2009. We will show, which campaign types are most common, to which extent a change of campaign patterns takes place and in how far external aspects are relevant for these changes (e.g. the Grand Coalition or the rise of AfD as new local competitor). (2.) We analyse, if the strategy of personalization or localization pays off in terms of winning the constituency. This will give an answer to the question of the relevance of specific campaign patterns in times of more flexible voting behaviour. Can local candidates undock their electoral success from parties by personalized or localized campaigns, and if so, to which extent? By these two steps of research, our conference paper and presentation contributes to the discussion if campaigns matter and if it is reasonable for parties and candidates to decide for candidate- and constituency centred campaign patterns instead of the traditional party campaign to increase personal votes (and thereby to win the constituency). Our empirical work is based on representative national candidates’ surveys for the German elections 2009, 2013 and 2017 (German Longitudinal Election Study). Due to this, we can and will address recent changes in the German party system as well as mid-term developments. Authors: Sebastian Bukow & Michael Angenendt