Potent Executives: The Electoral Strength of Prime Ministers in Central Eastern Europe

Prime ministers in Central Eastern Europe (CEE) are commonly perceived to be weaker and less `presidential' than their Western European colleagues. This assessment relies on their comparatively shorter survival in office. In contrast I argue that the post-communist legacy of CEE provides a more favourable context for prime ministers to develop a central characteristic of 'presidential' prime ministers: A strong personal influence on voting behaviour in parliamentary elections, which provides prime ministers with the opportunity to gain autonomy within their party and cabinet. I theorise that the societal dealignment, as well as the comparatively higher elite influence over the media, provide prime ministers in CEE with greater electoral potential than their Western European counterparts. I study the leader effect of prime ministers across European countries to test this hypothesis using CSES data. I find that prime ministers in CEE have a stronger influence on vote choice than West European prime ministers. This presents a puzzle since prime ministers in CEE seem unable to use their comparatively higher electoral strength to secure their position in office. I discuss the implications of my findings for the presidentialization thesis and the measurement of prime minister's performance.