Immigration as a Thermostat? The Interaction Between Public Opinion Towards Immigration and Policy Across 17 European Countries (1980-2017)

Public opinion scholarship primarily focuses on the notion of respon- siveness, i.e. the relationship between citizens, their environment and, most notably, policy. One the most prevalent framework the literature brings forward in this regard is what we have come to understand as the thermostat (Wlezien 1995). While extensively recognised and re- searched, two caveats allow for further research. First, most research is limited in scope and even those who go beyond a single case are not often comparative in nature. Second, existing studies often interpret public opinion as a singular and harmonised object. Therefore, this study sets out to examine the thermostat across Europe and specifi- cally applied to the most salient dimension of public opinion in Eu- rope, namely immigration. We use a dyad-ratios technique and more than 500 data sources to estimate a unique public opinion measure for 16 Northern, Western and Southern European countries since the 1980s. Through a set of fixed effects error correction models, we find evidence of a so-called immigration thermostat. The changes in the publics preferences of immigration are negatively related to changes in our indicator of immigration policy, while policy changes feed back on (and positively affect) public opinion towards immigration.