Career Paths of Electoral Leaders in Parliamentary Democracies: A Sequence Analysis of Electoral Leaders in Germany

Electoral leaders play a central role in election campaigns in parliamentary democracies. Parties take a considerable effort in their selection and they influence voting behaviour. While party research has provided valuable insights on the selection of party leaders, electoral leaders themselves have not yet been subjected to any systematic analysis. Thus, this study contributes to fill this gap by examining whom parties choose as their leading candidates in national parliamentary elections. Existing research on the selection of party leaders usually focuses on characteristics like age, gender or experience. This study goes beyond these traits by examining the career paths of electoral leaders through sequence analysis. In this context, a career path is understood as a sequence of certain positions an individual has held over her career in the party. Here, the study differentiates between positions in the party's central office, the party in parliament and the party in government. Sequence analysis enables to reveal patterns in the career paths of electoral leaders and how these patterns have changed over time against the backdrop of a growing personalization of electoral processes. By analysing the career paths on a broad scale, sequence analysis exposes (changing) qualifications for gaining the position as electoral leader. The dataset for this analysis includes electoral leaders of all relevant parties in Germany after 1945. Challenges for extending this analysis on a cross-country or subnational level are also addressed. The study also sets forth how these findings can be used for future research. The exposed career types can serve as a starting point for further theoretical considerations on the selection of party leadership figures. As a dependent variable, career path types can be linked to various party features, like for example party size or governmental status. In analyses on voting behaviour and the electoral performance of parties, career path types can also be used as an independent variable.