Who Wages War? A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Ministers and the Initiation, Escalation and Resolution of International Disputes

Why are international disputes initiated, and why do they escalate? Why do some conflicts end in a compromise, whereas others lead to that one country is defeated? In this paper, we draw on the literature on foreign policy analysis to answer such questions, focusing on the idea that foreign policy outcomes are the result of human decision-making. We examine how the backgrounds of foreign ministers and leaders interact to shape foreign policy in democracies and non-democracies. Using an original data set of the personal and professional backgrounds of foreign ministers in thirteen countries across more than 200 years, we show that foreign ministers with diplomatic backgrounds are more effective at deescalating crises, preventing wide-spread violence. That effect, and the effect of other facets of foreign minister background, are conditional on both the relative experience of the leader, and regime characteristics, including democracy. This finding suggests that, if we are to fully understand the impact of leaders on foreign policy outcomes, we need to investigate the role of subordinates of presidents and prime ministers.