Patterns of Vulnerability and Resilience in Central and East European Democracies

The subsequent economic and refugee crises have weakened the credibility of mainstream political parties in Central and Eastern Europe since prosperity and security no longer appear to be guaranteed consequences of European integration. Governing parties have struggled to bridge between the diverging policy expectations of voters on the one hand, international economic and political stakeholders on the other. The declining legitimacy of incumbents has provided opportunities for populist and anti-establishment mobilization. While these crisis-induced influences have been similar in all CEE countries, the extent to which populist challengers have been able to win elections and form governments has varied significantly across countries. To account for these differences, the paper focuses on party systems and the configuration of cleavages. Populist parties have attained political majorities through bipolar party competition that has been supported by congruent cleavages, particularly the congruence between sociocultural conflict structures and EU opposition. However, ethnoterritorial cleavages also constrain the electoral scope of populist parties and their potential to generate bipolar competition. Drawing on cross-national surveys, the paper studies the interaction of these variables and how they affect the prospects for populist majorities in individual countries.