While there is a large literature studying the determinants of public support for European integration, we know much less about the forces that shape people’s preferences regarding participation in international regional integration initiatives, especially when these initiatives compete for the hearts and minds of the citizens. We developed an original survey experiment that aimed to test how framing of international cooperation in different terms (i.e. as beneficial in terms of economy, security, or protection of common values, identities, and governance norms) affects public support for cooperation with the European Union or Russia (and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)) in Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine.
Importantly, these countries are targeted by the integration projects of both Russia and the EU, and their citizens are exposed to a variety of arguments about the geopolitical and civilization choices of their governments in a contested region. We used six vignettes signaling specific aspects of international cooperation: economy, security, shared identity, shared traditional values, shared liberal values, and shared norms of governance. We assess the influence of these vignettes on support for the EU or Russia/EEU among diverse samples of citizens in the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU. We find citizens in the region to be more interested in cooperation with both the EU and Russia than expected (with the exception of Ukraine). When choosing one over the other, we find preferences to be (asymmetrically) affected by identity and values that citizens subscribe to. Reflecting on the results, we see a combination of local and national concerns and understandings of cooperation and integration in the region. The perceptions of EU and Russia strengthened their communications and policies also play a role.
