External Influence Versus Patronal Politics: Is the EU Still Effective to Promote Democracy and the Rule of Law?

The European Union’s (EU’s) influence on democratization in the post-communist region has visibly declined since it has been preoccupied with internal quarrels for almost a decade (Euro crisis, migration, Brexit). The result is a trend towards stagnation or re-authoritarization, even among (potential) candidate countries for EU membership. Is the EU still able to promote or at least secure democracy and the rule of law in the region? The analysis looks at the crucial case of the Macedonian political crisis from February 2015 – April 2017. The crisis started with evidence of massive eavesdropping on thousands of people in the country, and ended with a change to a new, pro-EU government in Skopje. While Macedonia is a small, land-locked country with a membership perspective and without alternative major international partners, the EU has invested heavily in crisis resolution through a dialogue process and an own monitoring mission on the ground. Based on different literatures, I test mechanisms for the EU’s potential influence and assess how international and domestic factors worked together to end democratic backsliding in the country.