Same Menu, Different Recipes? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Democratic Backsliding in the EU Enlargement Region

In the wake of the integration of ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries into the European Union, EU enlargement was hailed as the most successful tool for external democracy promotion. A decade later, initial enthusiasm has given way to growing concerns over democratic backsliding in the enlargement region, comprising both illiberal tendencies among recent EU entrants and democratic stagnation and outright regression among candidate countries. Still, most empirical contributions take the form of case studies that yield little insight into the broader phenomenon. This paper proposes a systematic, qualitative comparative analysis of democratic backsliding across both recent EU members in Central and Eastern Europe and current accession candidates in the Western Balkans. Bringing together Europeanisation research and comparative democratisation literature, it jointly examines the role of EU leverage and a range of domestic factors in accounting for the onset of democratic backsliding in the enlargement region. Its findings suggest a prominent role for party politics and elite attitudes, which are difficult to shape through the existing tools of the EU’s enlargement policy. The paper speaks to ongoing discussions on democratic performance in Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe and feeds into the broader debate on backsliding as a current challenge to the spread and sustainability of liberal democracy.