This paper will consider how far the framework developed by Zeitlin (2009) and Barcevičius et al. (2014) to analyze the national impact of the OMC, based on a typology of forms of influence, causal mechanisms, and intermediate effects can be extended to the European Semester, and what modifications may be needed to take account of the latter’s distinctive features, including the linkages between ‘harder’ and ‘softer’ coordination processes and the possible threat of financial sanctions. Drawing on EU documents and elite interviews at European level, as well as on the emerging body of case-study research on specific countries and issue-areas (including other contributions to this panel), the paper will also try to draw some preliminary empirical conclusions about the influence of the European Semester on national social and employment policy reforms.
