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Long-term Economic Distress, Cultural Backlash, and Support for Brexit

Electoral Behaviour
Euroscepticism
Public Opinion
Brexit
Miguel Carreras
University of California, Riverside
Shaun Bowler
Miguel Carreras
University of California, Riverside
Yasemin İrepoğlu Carreras
University of California, Riverside

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the structural determinants of support for Brexit in England. We argue that the high level of regional inequality is key to explain the “leave” vote in the Brexit referendum. Using both aggregate economic and electoral data at the local level (326 local authorities) and Wave 7 of the British Election Study Internet Panel (conducted a month prior to the referendum), we show that support for Brexit was significantly higher in areas suffering structural economic problems and long-term economic decline. We also hypothesize (and demonstrate empirically) that the main causal mechanism is an increase in anti-immigrant and anti-EU attitudes in economically depressed areas. On the contrary, in areas where the economy is booming, citizens are more likely to feel European and less likely to feel threatened by immigrants. By placing citizens “in context”, our paper shows the link between explanations of Brexit that focus on economic factors and “cultural backlash” arguments.