The dynamic evolution of conflicting tensions in the Middle East has relieved complex environment of security policy decision making where the necessity to assess national interests, public support and diplomatic options as well as lessons learned of interventional campaigns is taken into considerations. Experienced complexity of interventional campaigns is defined by multiple confrontations through ethnical, social, religious lines among fragmented groups in the areas of interventional campaigns. This fragmentation evokes difficulties of assessing external factors.
The aim of the article is to provide an analytical model of military interventions that involves two parallelly important dimensions of the development of foreign and security policy: cognitive assessment of external factors and consolidation of resources during national or coalitional decision-making process. The suggested model consists of regenerated theoretical notions of neoclassical realism and their application through poliheuristic research approach previously defined by Alex Mintz.
The first part of the work reveals synthesis of theoretical notions of neoclassical realism. These notions provide a method of how to research both named dimensions: assessment of external factors and reactive consolidation of possible resources in development of military intervention. Poliheuristic method taken from theoretical developments initiated by Alex Mintz in 1997 is another step further in development of proposed research method.
The final part of the article offers a capability to test application of the poliheuristic method in research of defined empirical conflict management cases. For this part of the work 3 consecutive interventional decisions are taken into consideration: Libyan intervention in 2011; conflict resolution efforts when dealing with Bashar al-Assad in Syria and military intervention against ISIS in the region.
Concluding remarks of the paper suggest the scope of application of neoclassical realism theory in contemporary peace research agenda.
