The Arctic is frequently iconised in politics and science, including through presumptions about conflict and cooperation around the region. Climate change is often highlighted as a potential cause of conflict and cooperation, including through resource exploration and extraction, tourism, shipping routes, and infrastructure. Yet studies on disaster diplomacy demonstrate how infrequently environmental hazards and hazard drivers, including climate change, generate new endeavours in conflict and cooperation. Short-term influences are sometimes seen as long as the activities have another basis, such as culture, trade, or political negotiations.
One other such basis might be science. Science diplomacy has rarely been investigated for disaster diplomacy, including related to climate change. Arctic science has some unique governance dimensions which might lend the region to more science diplomacy for disaster-related work, including climate change, than other locations. Indigenous populations around the Arctic have deep, long-term, cross-border knowledge and wisdom of the region's environment. The Svalbard Treaty permits many countries to send scientists to work in the archipelago. Many non-Arctic countries--including China, India, and Singapore--are seeking Arctic credibility in order to claim interests in the northern latitudes, as is the European Union which has no coastline north of the Arctic Circle. Contributing to Arctic science is one possibility for maintaining a foothold.
Examining past and ongoing science diplomacy for disaster-related activities suggests limited prospects for the Arctic. For disaster-related activities, all levels of governance tend to pursue their political interests without necessarily accounting for science or for science-related cooperation. Scientists as activists sometimes have political influence, but scientists conducting disaster-related science frequently collaborate despite unfriendly governments, with no influence on their governments' relations. If Arctic science diplomacy for disaster-related activities is desired to avert any conflict in the region, then scientists will need to make a concerted effort as activists rather than as scientists.
