Using data from the Swiss Household Panel between 1999 and 2014, we examine the most important pathways by which an individual shifts to right-wing populist parties in Switzerland, focusing in particular on working-class individuals. Preliminary results from an ongoing analysis of voting intentions suggest that a right-wing populist preference is most frequently preceded by non-vote and that the most common pathway is from mainstream right-wing parties to non-vote to populist right parties; a direct change from vote for the socialist party to vote for a right-wing populist party being one of the most unlikely transitions. When there is a shift from the left to the populist right, this is usually preceded by either non-vote or vote for another party, and tends to be a rare occurrence anyways. More generally, the shift to the populist right seems to have little to do with changes in material conditions, either objective or perceived, and to be more clearly linked to perceived threats to physical security (crime, vandalism). Many attitudes generally associated with the vote for the populist right in Switzerland, e.g. welfare chauvinism and opposition to the EU, seem to be both antecedents and consequences of the partisan choice.
