The Politics of Unexpected Consequences: European Wage Competition through the Posting of Workers Directive

In this paper, I focus on the unexpected consequences of policy that were not discussed during the enactment of a policy. In this way, unexpected consequences may affect the ‘status quo’ in decision-making. As a consequence, some shifts of this status quo may enable decision-makers to change policy, while others continue to maintain the current state of affairs. This dynamic is illustrated by the current discussion on revising the Posting of Workers Directive. The Posting Directive has given rise to substantial wage competition in the building, shipping and transport sectors in Europe. Based on calls from especially West-European countries, the Commission proposed a revision of this directive, which received a ‘yellow card’ in the Summer of 2016. Analyzing this case, if view of the framework proposed, provides new insights into the dynamics of policymaking and the consequences of EU policy.