The paper analyses how the quality of democracy influences the climate performance of established democracies. Two analyses separate for the first time established democracies based on their level of democracy and detect internal mechanisms to understand their different reactions on climate change. Findings demonstrate that higher levels of democratic quality tend to have a positive influence on climate performance.
The positive influence of the quality of democracy, evaluated by empirical translations of control (accountability, independence, stability), equality (inclusiveness, participation, transparency) and freedom (creativity, liberty, publicity), can be observed regarding output (policy targets etc.) and with certain limitations regarding outcome (GHG emission development). Research results are robust and show synergy in terms of detailed mechanisms verifying statistical trends. An initially outlined concept of democratic efficacy explains these findings more generally by theorizing that democracy’s ability to produce desired and intended climate performances raises with increasing quality of democracy. Empirical analysis is conducted by applying an explanatory mixed methods design. Firstly, panel regressions deliver trends on the influence of the quality of democracy, as measured by the Democracy Barometer, on climate performance, as measured by the Climate Change Performance Index. Depending on combination of data, the number of countries ranges from 39 to 41 in 2004 to 2012 resulting in 193 to 326 country-years. Secondly, a case study of Canada’s Kyoto Protocol process from 1995 to 2012 follows, providing detailed insights in mechanisms of the quality of democracy and climate performance. These findings are based on documentary analysis and 27 interviews with ministers, parliamentarians, environmental and business NGOs, journalists etc.
Findings are important for academia as well as for political practice. The main research implications are twofold. Firstly, more attention has to be paid on the different democratic qualities of established democracies and the influence these differences have. Secondly, the initially outlined concept of democratic efficacy has to be advanced to an encompassing middle range theory as an explanatory link between democratic quality and climate as well as performances in other policy fields. The fundamental practical implication is as simple as complex: overcome democratic shortcomings and thus democratize democracies to make them more efficacious.
