Fear of a 'third Intifadah' - Interpreting the latest Wave of Anti-Israeli Violence

Since the beginning of October, Israel is rocked by a series of attacks on members of security forces and Jewish civilians, mainly in Eastern Jerusalem and the West Bank. While neither the Palestinian Authority (PA), nor the Israeli Government calls the recent wave of violence a new “Intifada” yet, the Israeli media and some commentators are questioning whether this constitutes the beginning of a third Arab mass uprising, accompanied by large-scale terror against the Israeli society. So far, the attacks appear uncoordinated and not orchestrated by any larger organization. The paper analyzes the reasons for the most recent escalation in the bloody Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There are several factors that triggered the outbreak of "lone wolf attacks": one is the incitement on social media and offline by Palestinian extremists. The myth of "Al Aqsa is in danger" being the most powerful of the narratives used to call the Palestinian youth to attack Israelis. Second is the all-but-certain collapse of the Palestinian Authority and it's loss of authority during the last few years. Another is the marginalization of Israel's Arab minority, the lack of perspective and a growing feeling of discrimination. The fourth factor is the growing nationalism of Israel's government and the counterproductive settlement policy. After analyzing these factors, the paper continues with an outline of what can be done by the various national and international actors to break the cycle of violence.These measures include a strong response by the PA, a policy of inclusion regarding the Arab minority in Israel rather than a policy of marginalization, and a commitment to the status quo on the Temple Mount. This wave of violence can be contained, but the regional situation and the lack of political vision on both sides make it unlikely that the conflict itself will be solved any time soon. As long as an unhappy status quo seems like the cheaper and safer option, there will be no conflict transformation.