The impact of trade union background on ministerial survival

This paper examines the effect of trade union ties on the political survival of government ministers. It conjectures that trade unions function as shadow principals for ministerial appointees, providing external support for ministers and their parties, that should, ceteris paribus, translate into longer durations in office for individual ministers. The paper also hypothesizes that the impact of trade unionism on survival may be conditional on union density, party-union ties, government strength, and portfolio saliency, since all these factors affect the costs for party leaders of dismissing trade unionist ministers. These expectations are tested with data on 242 junior and senior ministers appointed to 27 Austrian cabinets bewteen 1945 and 2015. Austria represents a useful test case with considerable variation in trade union linkages across parties and governments.