Actual welfare provision in European welfare states: How does benefit receipt develop over time and to what extent are changes an expression of changes in social rights and social needs?

In comparative welfare state analysis, the question which indicators or combination of factors should be used to measure the quality and quantity of welfare states, their cross-country variation, and change, has triggered much discussion about the so-called ‘dependent variable problem’. Recent research (van Oorschot, 2013) suggests that in this discussion survey data on benefit receipt are a hitherto underused variable, which offers insights beyond the currently measured ‘paper reality’ of social rights data or ‘cost outcomes’ of social expenditure figures. Benefit receipt in terms of access to and levels of benefits is the direct consequence of stipulated social rights and structural social needs, and the cause of social expenditure. Being placed at this particular intersection, studying benefit receipt has the potential to create a better understanding of what is actually going on in welfare states, and what drives their provisions. It contributes a great deal to social policy monitoring in Europe and can inform policy-making. Consequently, this paper aims to contribute to the dependent variable discussion in two ways: First, by studying altering extents of European welfare state provisions on the basis of benefit recipiency data between 2004 and 2013. And secondly, by analysing the degree to which cross-national variation in benefit receipt is influenced by national and timely differences in social rights and social needs. Results will be compared with existing studies using the conventional indicators, and with findings of Peter Flora’s comparative welfare state project (Flora, 1986a, 1986b, and 1987). The latter suggested that extended welfare state provisions are primarily the result of changes in transfer eligibility and benefit amounts. Changes in the size of the need population as well as economic conditions were found to have only marginal effects.