Economic conditions are known to influence electoral outcomes, in that incumbents are more likely to win when the economy is doing well. Past work has shown this to be true in elections at the national, state/provincial and municipal levels in Canada and around the world. However, there is significant variation in the jurisdictional ability of different governments to influence economic conditions; in particular, municipal governments may be least able to influence the economy. This could mean that economic considerations are not at the forefront of voters’ minds when casting ballots in municipal elections. In turn, voters may be less likely to hold municipal incumbents accountable for the economy than either provincial or federal politicians. Until now, this question has not been addressed.
This paper builds upon the large economic voting literature by incorporating consideration of jurisdictional capacity to explore several questions. First, do citizens differentiate between the impact of different governments on economic conditions? Second, how do economic effects on vote choice in local elections compare to those in federal and provincial elections? Finally, does individual-level variation in perceptions of influence condition economic effects? We consider these questions using individual-level data collected during the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election, the 2011 Ontario provincial election and the 2011 Canadian federal election.
