The current literature about social movement outcomes extensively describes the potential effects of social movement action. There is a great consensus that social movements are key actors in all kinds of political processes, be it developing public discourses or policy changes. However, one major problem with the social movement outcome literature is the lack of causal foundation for claims about social movement effects. The social movement outcome literature includes much empirical work on the outcomes of social movements without specific attention to causal theories that explain how social movements produce such effects. How can we be certain that the observed outcome is indeed the effect of social movement action, and not of other actors or circumstances? In other words, how do we overcome the causality problem that is inherent to social science research?
This paper addresses this problem by linking the social movement outcome literature with the literature on power and influence, two branches of research that are rarely explicitly brought together. Unpacking how social movements’ influence on outcomes should be conceptualized and established, I formulate several propositions about how causality can be better asserted. I illustrate this with examples of women’s movements’ influence on abortion policy-making processes in the following countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States.
