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12 Angry Fishermen: Voter Gratitude When the Government Does Not Deliver But Pays Out

Pedro Riera
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Pedro Riera
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
IGNACIO JURADO
University of Manchester
Elias Dinas
European University Institute

Abstract

This paper analyses how voters electorally respond when a government delivers a poor performance, but buys ctiizens off with monetary transfers. We study the case of the 2002 oil spill off the coast of Galicia (Northwestern Spain) after the sinking of the Prestige oil tanker, where the government was partially responsible for the spill, but was very generous with the aftermath compensations. Using data from municipalities affected by the oil spill, we evaluate whether the incumbent conservative party was either rewarded or punished in the subsequent local and subnational elections. We show that municipalities characterized by a previous pattern of support to the incumbent party at the national level respond differently to those that traditionally supported the opposition parties.