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The Electoral Consequences of Ministerial Exit in Canada

Elites
Executives
Parliaments
Matthew Kerby
Australian National University
Matthew Kerby
Australian National University

Abstract

This research examines the electoral consequence of ministerial exit from the Cana- dian federal cabinet for the period 1867–2006. Studies of ministerial careers typically examine the determinants of appointment, exit or duration. Rarely do they consider the consequence of such career shocks on electoral success or failure. The first ob- jective of this paper is to provide a topographic overview of electoral assent, decent or failure of ex–ministers in the general election that follows their cabinet exit. The second objective is to identify and test a number of conditions and variables which are hypothesized to impact the electoral success or failure of ex–ministers. The data used to study this phenomenon consist of the population of ex–ministers and their electoral fortunes. Insights shed specific light on the Canadian case and provide insight for future research in other Westminster parliamentary democracies.