In recent years there has been an increased scholarly interest in the descriptive representation of women in executives. Particular emphasis has been given to women’s (s)election to cabinet, the allocation of portfolios and, more recently, the opportunities for the substantive representation of women by women ministers. A parallel research trajectory has emerged exploring the determinants of ministerial appointment, survival and exit, although there has been relatively limited attention given to variation by gender. Both literatures have begun to explore the cross-national dimensions of elite political careers, although to date most of the focus has been on comparing single country case studies. Drawing on original datasets of ministerial duration for Australia, Canada, NZ and the UK for the period 1949-2010 our paper examines whether, and to what extent, promotion and demotion within cabinet is gendered. Davis’ (1997) cross-national overtime analysis revealed that women were most likely to be appointed to cabinets immediately following an election, but once appointed we know little about their career prospects. Informed by scholarship in political science sociology, labour economics and management this study tests the hypothesis that the rates of intra-cabinet promotion and demotion differ for male and female cabinet ministers. It employs a competing risk event history model which treats promotion and demotion as independent risks and estimates the likelihood of career progression given a minister has “survived” in cabinet up to the point of observation. Comparing ministers across our four cases we examine the effects of institutional variation and differing levels of descriptive representation in the cabinet and legislature while holding the rules and norms of the Westminster constant. The results produced by our analysis will contribute to the literature on elite careers by switching the focus to intra-cabinet movements and enhancing the discussion theoretically by examining the effects of gender on this process.
