The European Union (EU) is yet again at a major crossroad. Change is needed to survive but what direction shall it take? And what are the pre-conditions for radical change – i.e., a non-incremental step towards a federal polity? We draw on findings in the field of cognitive and behavioural economics to challenge the conventional wisdom that reflexive learning processes and trust-building are necessary conditions for radical policy change. We argue that inertia, short-term horizons of elected politicians, and weak citizens’ trust in the EU can be overcome by phenomena of adaptation and heuristic shortcuts. Though reluctantly and even accidentally enacted, such a process of policy change based on contingent learning can trigger ex-post preference convergence and generate output-based legitimacy. In a way, change-or-die scenarios can make up for the lack of preconditions conducive to thick reflexive learning. Seen in this light, merely adaptive policy-makers might turn out to be the accidental federal heroes of the EU.
Keywords: Policy learning, policy change, European integration, federalism, cognitive and behavioural economics.
