Research on the determinants of voters’ expectations about the electoral chances of parties and candidates has focused on individual-level characteristics. Political motivation, knowledge, and party identification strongly influence the accuracy of electoral expectations (Blais and Bodet, 2006, Meffert et al, 2011). In this paper it is shown that voters’ expectations are also affected by the electoral system, mainly the number of seats to be allocated in a district, and the degree of competitiveness. As district magnitude increases (i.e., in PR electoral systems), the smaller the relative distance that separates winners from losers and consequently the harder it is to determine who is “out of running”. Under conditions of high uncertainty about the identity of trailing and front-running parties or candidates, it can be hypothesized that (i) expectations are less accurate and (ii) the outcome of the previous election plays a more important role when it comes to ascertaining chances of winning. Second, we argue that what matters is not only who is going to win but also by how much. Local competitiveness has two distinct effects. The higher the difference between the top two parties’ or candidates’ vote percentages in the district (or between the winner of the last allocated seat and the first loser (see Blais and Lago, 2009), the more accurate the voters’ perception of the parties’ chances of winning. However, the lower the difference (i.e, the more competitive the election is), the easier it is for voters to form expectations due to higher political interest in the campaign. Finally, we argue that there is an interaction between district magnitude and competitiveness. In order to test these arguments we make use of panel surveys for the 2011 and 2012 provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec and the 2011 national election in the regions of Catalonia and Madrid.
