The growth in the use of referendums to make major political decisions internationally has brought renewed interest in the factors which underpin voting behaviour at these types of plebiscites. Offering a binary choice to voters, referendum contests pit Yes and No campaigners against each other. The dynamic is unusual in many European countries in that a contest between directly opposing forces is not the norm in elections. Proportional electoral systems, multi party systems and long traditions of coalition government deliver crowded, competitive election environments where negative campaign techniques have not become as prevalent as is the case in two party systems and/or presidential systems. Consequently, referendums offer a rare electoral environment in which to consider campaign techniques which place political forces in direct opposition to each other.
This paper will examine the effect of negative campaigning on voter behaviour at referendums in Ireland. Allegations of lies and scaremongering, and campaigns described as providing more heat than light, are the common refrain of referendum campaigns in Ireland (Marsh, Suiter and Reidy 2012). Using opinion poll data collected by the Referendum Commission, this paper will explore the impact of campaign techniques at three referendums, Oireachtas Inquiries (2011), Fiscal Treaty (2012) and Children’s Rights (2012). The research will cover both direct and indirect campaign techniques and will consider campaign events, campaign tone and intensity.
Using data on sources of information, usefulness and trust, the paper will isolate the impact of negative campaign techniques on voter behaviour. A distinctive element of the paper is that it will involve an examination of campaign techniques at a variety of referendum contests. LeDuc (2002) presents a framework for understanding the dynamics of voter decision making at different types of referendums. He classifies referendums along a spectrum from stable to volatile and referendums selected in this paper span the full spectrum.
