Critical Junctures in Democracy Promotion

Abstract

Processes of regime change have proven much more complex than the 'transition paradigm' had led us to expect. While producing quite diverse results, they arguably have a long-term impact on the institutional set-up and the socio-political power relations of the country at hand. In this sense, they constitute key episodes of political change which can be analysed as critical junctures. This panel sets out to use the historical institutional concept of critical junctures in order to develop a new perspective on international democracy promotion. Instead of the linear view that analyses democracy promotion in terms of its effect on the success or failure of transition processes, the notion of critical junctures allows for democracy promotion to have multiple effects on political development in the 'recipient' country. By engaging in (or supporting the emergence of) critical junctures, external democracy promoters might, for instance, help shape domestic political struggle in a way that sets a country on a path towards 'delegative' democracy or towards (some kind of) 'hybrid' regime. Systematically, the panel will deal with the following questions: (1) To what extent and in what way do democracy promoters engage in producing critical junctures in 'target' countries? (2) How do democracy promoters perceive, react to and interact with 'local' actors in critical junctures? (3) What consequences do different activities of external actors in critical junctures have for the political development in the 'target' countries? Specifically, the panel will comprise a large-N study complemented by a number of case-studies. The large-N study will give an overview of the impact of external actors in critical junctures.

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