Conditional Effectiveness of Grassroots Lobbying: German MPs’ Perceptions of Citizen Influence

Scholars have yet to conclusively determine whether—and under what conditions—grassroots lobbying influences legislators’ behavior. Existing studies report contradictory findings: some suggest a strong positive impact, while others indicate negligible or even negative effects. This inconsistency may stem from insufficient attention to legislators’ own reasoning when supporting or rejecting bills. Political decisions may be shaped by personal beliefs or party programs rather than grassroots actions. To address this gap, this paper examines whether German Members of Parliament (MPs) perceive grassroots lobbying as an effective method of influencing their decisions. The study introduces the “theory of conditional grassroots lobbying effectiveness,” which posits three primary determinants of success: (1) high-quality arguments presented through the action; (2) engagement at early stages of the policy-making process; and (3) the issue being of lower salience for legislators. Two secondary determinants—large-scale citizen involvement and perceived credibility—are also considered. The aim is to assess whether MPs’ perceptions align with these determinants by systematically mapping their self-reported reasoning against the theory’s premises. In this paper, fifteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with German MPs. Findings indicate that legislators respond more favorably to grassroots actions that provide well-developed arguments, occur early in the legislative process, and concern issues of lower salience. Evidence regarding the influence of scale and credibility was mixed: only a slight majority of MPs acknowledged these factors as playing a positive, though secondary, role. These results suggest that while certain conditions enhance the perceived effectiveness of grassroots lobbying, others exert limited influence. This paper makes three key contributions. First, it offers a novel theoretical framework—the theory of conditional grassroots lobbying effectiveness—for understanding the conditional nature of grassroots lobbying success. Second, it provides empirical insights into MPs’ self-perceptions of grassroots lobbying, an area that remains underexplored in Western Europe. Third, it identifies factors that German legislators believe shape their political decisions, offering a foundation for comparative research in other European Union democracies with similar institutional characteristics. By mapping legislators’ reasoning against theoretical expectations, this study advances the literature on interest group politics and highlights the importance of timing, argument quality, and issue salience in shaping the success of grassroots lobbying efforts.