Democratic Backsliding, Polarization, and Perceptions of Electoral Fairness: The case of Turkey 2007-2023

Previous research suggests that perceived fairness of elections is consequential for both electoral behavior and availability of meaningful party choices. In this study, we focus on the determinants of citizens' such perceptions in the Turkish context of rapid democratic backsliding and growing party, elite, and electoral polarization in the last two decades. Aiming to link perceived fairness of elections and correctness of vote counting to both ideological, partisan, and affective polarization, we employ panel survey data from the 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018 general elections, and cross-sectional survey data collected before the 2017 constitutional referendum and 2023 general and presidential elections in Turkey. The findings from a series of ordinal and binary logistic analyses suggest that ideological and attitudinal polarization of voters strongly influence how they perceive electoral fairness and correctness of vote counting. We discuss the implications of our findings from the perspectives of representation, democratic backsliding, and political polarization.