From Stadiums to Power: A Novel Approach to Measuring the Soft Power of Sports Mega-Events.

This study is the first to propose measuring soft power through a blend of changes in intention, observed behaviour, and perceived cost. The approach represents a major departure from traditional measures of soft power, which suffer from weak construct validity and obscure causal mechanisms due to reliance on public opinion or proxy indicators. The method advanced here avoids the limitations of existing approaches by uniquely adapting classic works in power theory with insights from the political-psychological literature. In doing so, it is the most comprehensive approach to measuring soft power to date. A synthetic Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates the method’s internal validity and robustness, and a model example illustrates its application to sports mega-events (SMEs). While particularly suited to SMEs, the method has interdisciplinary application to other time-bound mega- events. It advances both the conceptual clarity and operational measurement of soft power, providing a practical means to evaluate and apply it in international affairs.