Populist Challenger Parties as Fillers of Representation Gaps at the Municipal Level? Analyzing Voter-Party Congruence Through a Voting Advice Application

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) serve as valuable tools for examining representation gaps, particularly in terms of the alignment (or divergence) between voter preferences and party positions. These gaps are essential for evaluating the quality of political representation, as a strong alignment is widely seen as a cornerstone of democratic legitimacy. While congruence tends to be robust on broad ideological dimensions, such as the economic left-right spectrum, it often weakens on more specific political issues. Despite the recognition that high congruence is indicative of democratic health, its variability across different governance levels and issue dimensions remains insufficiently explored, particularly at the municipal level. The rise of right-wing populist parties such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany disrupts the traditional dynamics of congruence, challenging established assumptions about representation. While it is argued that such parties may enhance representation by voicing the concerns of previously underrepresented groups—especially those holding more populist, nationalist views—empirical evidence on this is still lacking. Preliminary analyses indicate that the AfD's electoral success has increased opinion congruence on particular issues, such as immigration, yet the overall alignment between AfD parliamentarians and voters remains limited beyond these specific topics. This suggests that populist parties may address representation gaps on selected issues. Our paper investigates representation gaps at the municipal level across 14 German cities or municipalities, using data from the German VAA "VOTO" to analyze the alignment between party positions and voter preferences on 17 standardized issues across six major German parties, all represented in the German Bundestag. In spring 2024, our data was collected by a research team led by Christian Stecker (TU Darmstadt). VOTO serves as a digital platform enabling municipalities, associations, universities, and other organizations to create customized VAAs by collecting responses from political parties and voters. While VOTO can be applied at various political levels, our focus lies specifically on the municipal level, where its customizable framework enables the collection of valuable data on voter-party alignment. By providing percentage-based recommendations, the platform helps users identify which parties best reflect their preferences. The online survey conducted through VOTO ensures accessibility and scalability while maintaining a user-friendly experience. A total of 181,983 people participated in the VOTO survey, providing a robust dataset that allows for an in-depth examination of voter-party congruence on both ideological and issue-specific dimensions, offering a comprehensive perspective on representation gaps at the local level.