The Politics of Urban Regime Contention: A Comparative Analysis of 18 Spanish Cases

This paper contributes to the revitalisation of Urban Regime Theory (URT) by analysing the conditions enabling the electoral consolidation of social movement-led left coalitions (SMLLCs) in Spanish cities after 2015. Drawing on a political economy and regime theoretic comparative framework applied to fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) across 18 cases, it investigates combinations of economic and political factors influencing the electoral consolidation of SMLLCs – taken as a proxy for regime change. The analysis identifies civic capacity as a necessary condition and finds that no single factor is sufficient. Instead, consolidation results from particular combinations: in smaller cities, parliamentary strength and fiscal capacity compensate for hostile upper-tier governments; in larger cities, allies at higher state tiers are important. Contrary to expectations, capital mobility plays little explanatory role, likely due to Spain’s fiscally egalitarian institutions. The paper underscores the importance of political-institutional factors—especially civic mobilisation and multi-level intra-state alliances—for progressive regime change.