Stories Making the World: How Do Narratives Emerge in Model-Based Scenarios?

Computer-based models today are widely used to guide energy planning and climate policy decisions. Different experts and organisations develop and apply various modelling frameworks to generate scenarios – often in collaboration with other actors, in highly international and interdisciplinary projects, and in a politically charged environment. In doing so, modellers have substantial flexibility in configuring complex models – which, in turn, significantly shapes the resulting scenarios. This raises the question of who is responsible for making critical assumptions, for the resulting value-laden narratives, and for a meaningful scenario use in informing political decisions. While in recent years, more work has been investigating the interaction between modellers and policymakers, the model-policy interface overall remains underexplored. To get a better understanding of how modellers perceive their role in the design and interpretation of models and scenarios, we conducted an online survey in November and December 2023. Informed by principal-agent theory and research on epistemic beliefs, the questionnaire covered aspects such as the information asymmetry between modellers and decision-makers, and the division of responsibility for different aspects of the modelling process between the two. Over 160 respondents from all continents and representing different disciplines participated in the survey. In the presentation, I will share the main survey results and illustrate how modellers from different backgrounds perceive their role and responsibility in the model and scenario development process. Based on these insights, I will discuss implications for science-informed energy and climate policymaking, especially in international cooperation. Finally, I will make suggestions for increasing transparency and accountability at the model-policy interface and propose entry points for further research.