Resisting the Conservative Swing - The Impact of Gender Mobilisation on Polish 2023 Election Results

The 2023 Polish elections were widely perceived as a critical juncture amidst concerns of democratic backsliding, representing a pivotal moment for the country's democratic integrity. This study focuses on explaining the social mobilization termed ‘the revolution of the disinterested’, as the unprecedented turnout and victory of the opposition were largely driven by groups typically disengaged from politics, particularly young women. Historically, these women have shown the least interest in politics and the lowest voter turnout in general elections, yet they emerged as a decisive force in 2023, displaying voting preferences significantly different from the broader electorate. Since 2016, and particularly following the Constitutional Tribunal's 2020 abortion ruling, there has been noticeable political mobilization among women, especially within the younger cohorts. This shift was evident in increased declarations of interest in politics, unprecedented participation in the 2020 presidential elections in Poland, and a very strong turn towards left-wing political positions. This surge in political engagement significantly influenced the strong emphasis on women's rights in the agendas of opposition political parties. In 2023, the political activation of this demographic, initially hesitant about participating in elections, became increasingly evident in the weeks leading up to the elections, leading to unprecedented turnout. Employing a large-scale, representative survey with embedded survey experiments conducted a month after the 2023 parliamentary elections, this study delves into the social mobilization around gender issues as pivotal to the election outcome. The research reveals a reversal of conservative trends established during the Law and Justice (PiS) government, particularly in attitudes towards women's political representation. It also highlights the centrality of women’s rights in electoral mobilization and identifies gender-specific strategies in candidate selection on electoral lists. Looking ahead to the 2024 European Parliament elections, this study underscores that mobilization, especially regarding young cohorts, around women's rights is temporal and conditional. Maintaining this momentum will require sustained and effective efforts from both governmental and non-governmental actors.