The "Grey Zones" in Security: Analysing Conflict Figurations in the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis

This paper provides a systemic analysis of the conditions under which we witness conflict onset, escalation, and re-escalation in the Nagorno Karabakh region since 2020. By uncovering the complexity of and linkages between domestic and structural factors of conflict processes in this region, the paper concentrate on studying the modes of escalation and the transformation of issues at stake in time. The paper introduces a "conflict figuration" model, as a novel approach to formulating a sustainable critique and constructing an analytical framework for the intentions, relations, events, decisions, and issues at stake leading to conflict onset and escalation. Conflict figuration is an assembled body of knowledge leaning on a multi-dimensional perspective. It disentangles the network of interdependent yet autonomous linkages, insider and outsider actors, structures, and strategies which together constitute the complexity surrounding conflict dynamics. The analytical framework of conflict figuration provides a critical disentanglement of conflict processes by exploring the 1) metaphysics of conflict onset through intentions and relations among conflict actors, 2) performativity of conflict escalation through events and decisions 3) normative and analytical validity of issues at stake in conflicts dynamics. This research intents to illustrates that greater attention should be paid to the divergent trajectories of mobilization leading to escalation processes, thus contributing to our understanding of conflict mechanisms. The synthesis and combination of particular issues at stake at individual points in time have significant implications for conflict resolution efforts in the future.