Shifting Shadows: The Impact of International Accountability on Repertoires of Violence Dynamics in Conflict Zones

The paper explores the interplay between international accountability influences and the repertoire of violence in conflict settings. It does so by examining how three distinct forms of international monitoring mechanisms - in particular, the establishment of UN peacekeeping bases, the naming and shaming of authoritarian regimes by UN working groups, and the indictment of violent leaders by the International Criminal Court (ICC) - affect both the frequency and nature of violent incidents. Based on the premise that external factors and accountability processes significantly alter the dynamics of local violence, the paper aims to reveal the extent and nature of these transformations. Extensive datasets documenting violent incidents are juxtaposed with data on peacekeeping bases and UN and ICC actions. A Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) serves as the primary tool for establishing causal relationships and quantifying the impact of these international interventions. The study critically examines the broader consequences of international accountability interventions on local violent actors. While the presence of UN peacekeeping bases is associated with a general decrease in overt violence, this contrasts with a persistent or even adaptive increase in clandestine violence, such as enforced disappearances. These findings suggest that local violent actors may modify their tactics in response to international pressure, but this relationship shows considerable variation across different countries. By shedding light on the unintended consequences of international accountability, this study contributes to the growing debates of international accountability mechanisms by providing a refined framework of how external influences may shape repertoires of violence in conflict settings.