This paper sets out to track the corruption risk impact of COVID-19 policies in Europe. We rely on large comprehensive data sets (Big Data) on public procurement contracts from several European countries to illustrate the impact of enacted COVID-19 policies on corruption risk outcomes and their interaction with pre-existing risk levels and overall institutional strength. Throughout the pandemic, governments in Europe and around the world were faced with the immense challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addressing them, they mobilized large amounts of resources in a short time. This was necessary to save lives, but it also created opportunities for corrupt transactions. Accordingly, we identify an increase in corruption risks across different categories of products, only some of which were related to fighting the virus.
First, public procurement spending on COVID-19-related goods and services increased across the continent as governments attempted to secure access to key products such as masks, vaccines and other forms of personal protective equipment. Unsurprisingly, this surge in spending also resulted in an increase in corruption risks as normal competition and supply mechanisms were largely set aside. Second, and a lot more surprisingly, we also found evidence that these corruption risks spilled over from COVID-19-specific products to general health related procurement. This spillover was stronger in countries with weaker institutional frameworks, that is countries which had struggled with controlling corruption in public procurement prior to the pandemic. Third, in some cases, such as Poland or Italy, we also found evidence that there was a spillover to non-health public procurement. In other words, as the opportunities for corrupt transactions increased due to the pressing need to acquire vital goods as rapidly as possible, other types of goods were also affected.
