What were they thinking? Anti-austerity voters and their turn towards radical parties

Research shows that many voters who disagree with fiscal austerity turn towards non-mainstream, often radical parties when the government adjusts fiscal policy. For instance, these studies find that fiscal austerity increased the vote for parties supporting Brexit in Britain (Fetzer 2019) and for populist parties across many European countries, especially among economically more vulnerable voters (Baccini and Sattler 2020). This trend has led to increasing levels of polarization in many countries (Hübscher, Sattler, Wagner 2019) which complicates sustainable policymaking. While these studies convincingly establish an empirical association between austerity and an increase in the vote share of radical parties, the underlying mechanisms that lead to these findings remain untested. Using original data from online survey experiments fielded in four key European countries, Germany, Britain, Spain and Portugal, our paper examines the reasons behind the decision of anti-austerity voters to turn towards radical parties. We find that voters supporting radical parties – on average – perceive mainstream (left and right) parties as indistinguishable in their macro-economic policy offers. This is particularly true when the mainstream left implemented austerity while in government. Furthermore, we find that supporters of radical parties expect that radical parties are less likely to implement austerity than mainstream parties and if radical parties support austerity, they expect the burden of austerity to be shifted to outgroups.