Affective polarization and supply-side populism in Spain: The impact of affective polarization on the intention to vote for populist parties

What is the effect of affective polarization (AP) on party choice? Despite the growing interest in analyzing the foundations of AP in two-party and multiparty systems, our knowledge of the electoral consequences of AP is still scarce. More precisely, the literature neglected the impact of AP on the intention to vote for populist parties (PP), which should represent the most attractive option for polarized people. This article investigates such association in Spain, where PPs can be found both in government and in the opposition. Using the third wave of a three-wave panel data, the study findings show that AP is positively associated with the probability to vote for PP; conversely, it does not play any role when explaining the voting for mainstream parties. However, a more refined analysis shows that AP is associated only with the voting for PP in the opposition when they compete with their governing counterparts.