Asset or Liability? The Impact of the National Head of Governments’ Approval Ratings on Regional Election Results

Regional elections play an important role in multi-level political systems, both for regional but also for national political actors. Regional election campaigns and particularly regional election outcomes are covered widely by journalists and politicians. Yet, there still is inconclusive evidence on how national politics affects regional election results. We argue theoretically that it is the approval rating of the national Head of Government (HoG) that is important for explaining the HoG party’s electoral success at the regional level rather than voters’ overall assessment of the HoG party. We will investigate our theoretical argument by focusing on the case of Germany (1990-2022) and we will analyse the relationship between the chancellor’s approval ratings on the electoral success of her/his party in regional elections. The findings will have important implications for our understanding of party competition in multi-level political systems and will add to the literature on the link between national and regional politics.