Uncertainty, Polarity, and the Security Dilemma: Rethinking Structural Realism

Waltz’s structural realism remains a mainstay in IR – be it a controversial one. While advocates see a parsimonious theory that explains the fundamentals of international politics, critics stress its limitations and propose additional hypotheses or alternative theories. We argue that the arguments on both sides display flaws that need remediation. In our view, the role of structure in international politics (i.e., anarchy and the distribution of power), and related uncertainty about intentions, is insufficiently understood. Therefore, we develop a baseline theory showing how structure and uncertainty drive international politics. First, we investigate how the type of uncertainty – i.e., the degree of uncertainty about states’ intentions to use force and the time horizon over which the uncertainty extends itself – impacts how structure affects its units’ behavior. Second, we explore to what extent the distribution of power affects the type of uncertainty under which great powers operate. The combination of both insights results in a theory that provides a deeper understanding of the crucial role of structure in international politics. As a result, our theory brings progress in many ongoing debates on the role of uncertainty in international politics and offers a bridge to other IR schools.